A post-failed state: what happens next? - A Kyrgyzstan Case Study
I wanted to investigate the post-failed state: do they continue on in the same state, do they collapse even further, or is there a way to fix it?
Upon reading the 2011 book Tropic of Chaos and specifically the chapter entitled “Kyrgyzstan’s Little Climate War”, I grew increasingly interested in what happened to Kyrgyzstan. It’s been 12 years since the book’s release; what happened since then? Looking past the Tropic of Chaos, I believe that Kyrgyzstan can give insights into what can happen to a failed state, especially when exacerbated by the effects of climate change.
A report from 2013, about 2 years after the book was published, estimated the costs of climate change on Kyrgyzstan. This climate change and disaster risk profile estimates that “Damages and losses from climate - related natural disasters cost the country nearly USD 6.7 million per year between 2000 and 2011.” This shows the effects of climate change while the book was still being written, although Parenti did not have this insight at the time as the report was published 2 years after his research was finalized.
The image above shows the areas of Central Asia that have changed climate classification within a 60 year period going up to 2020. Many areas changed climate, including many spots in Kyrgyzstan. Overall average temperature has also increased "from 4.8°C to 6°C" According to a press release on World Water Day from UNICEF on the water crisis and Kyrgyzstan's vulnerability. The article also states that in some of "the most pessimistic estimates, the average temperature in Kyrgyzstan could increase by 8°C during this century. Due to its geographical location, Kyrgyzstan is one of the most vulnerable countries to a changing climate in Central Asia".
Due to these environmental changes, the country also faces lack of basic needs. This includes food, the climate change and risk profile also noted “moderate to severe food insecurity touching nearly 24% of the total population and a high dependence on imports of basic food items.” Not only is food scarce, but so is water. In the not so distance future the same article from UNICEF on water crisis anticipates that “climate change will reduce water supply in certain regions, which will make it more difficult to provide children with the water they need for their survival, health and well-being.” The article explaining the exacerbation of issues in Kyrgyzstan by the COVID-19 pandemic also explains how while there are certainly environmental issues, studies about specific environmental impacts are still scarce. Perhaps that is a question of further investigation in the future.
“raised about the coming consequences of involuntary immobility for those who had planned a move to Russia in 2020 and cannot leave due to the global pandemic and related border closure, and about unemployment for the migrants whose economic activity has been halted and who cannot send money back home. The disruption in remittances could put additional pressure on natural resources in mountain areas if residents turn to new ways of sustaining themselves (through more intensive agriculture or increased consumption of firewood for instance).”
As the report explains, this inability to migrate due to COVID-19 impacts could also cause further environmental harm to Kyrgyzstan.
Within the failed state category, conflict is ever present and there is nothing the government can do, or will do, to stop it. This definitely still applies in Kyrgyzstan today. In September 2022, there were clashes along the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, according to an article from Columbia on COP27 and what it means for Kyrgyzstan. When the border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan began, the main аttacks were on power lines. In addition, the Human Rights Watch describes a horrible ten year conflict there was, and is, between ethnic Uzbeks and Kyrgyz. The tension is strong to this day. Government has established a State Agency for Local Government Affairs and Interethnic Relations to help ease tensions between the two groups, however it is corrupt and relatively unknown to the public.
Going back to the water crisis, this has furthered conflict in the area. An article specifically talks about the impact of water and the water crisis on conflict between three countries in central Asia, one of which is Kyrgyzstan. There was a particularly hard drought in the summer of 2021 that escalated local crises, which "demonstrated that water distribution in river basins was a critical area for study." The article goes on to explain how "water disputes can become a serious threat to the stability of the region and that countries can no longer delay the development of joint decisions/mechanisms on the management of shared resources." Adding more instability on top of an already unstable country, both in terms of politics and climate change, is never a good idea.
It is clear that Kyrgyzstan is still a politically unstable and failed state, and environmental impacts are only exacerbating these political and human rights impacts. There must be something done to help countries like Kyrgyzstan get their feet underneath them, or worst case, evacuate them to safer areas in terms of safety and wellbeing both in political senses and environmental senses.
Hi Alison, this piece was really informational! I had no idea how bad this situation had gotten. It sounds similar to a lot of water situations in Central Asia as well as a lot of political and human rights issues that are not brought to light as much. I also thought it was really tragic to see that 6.7 million USD will be spent on just natural disasters. I think that we will be seeing this in lots of places where there are major droughts from climate change as well as states that have simply become a war zone.
ReplyDeleteVery well rounded view of the climate change situation here. I thought that your map depicting what regions have had a change in climate was very informational. I was especially shocked to read that the average temperature could increase by up to 8C in Kyrgyzstan this century. That combined with the large portion of the population facing food scarcity this failed state could certainly use some aid from other nations.
ReplyDeleteHey Alison, great post! I like that you looked into a failed state from the book to update on it, it's unfortunate that it's not doing any better. It's wild to me that we were talking about the detrimental effects of reacting 4c higher globally while there's countries that might be double that by the end of the century. I also like that you wrote about how covid-19 impacted people's ability to migrate.
ReplyDeleteGood work, Alison! Your post really dove into what was and then currently is happening in Kyrgyzstan. The part where you mentioned that nearly a quarter of the entire country's population face food scarcity plus all the other obstacles, shows that they are indeed a failed state. Hopefully, climate change is slowed and conditions will improve there some day.
ReplyDeleteI think that its really cool that you decided to look into one of the failed states in the book and give an update on its status a decade later. Its situation is a great example of how the problems faced by developing countries are exacerbated by climate change, turning growth into an uphill battle. It was also very interesting that Kyrgyzstan's temperature by the end of the century is projected to rise to 8C, twice that of the rest of the projected average for the rest of the world.
ReplyDeleteWhat most struck me about your post was how the climate crisis seems to have gotten even worse in the region - made worse by the underlying conditions, now of pandemic and warfare, just as Parenti talked about. Already increased 4-6 degrees in Central Asia that is totally terrifying.
ReplyDeleteHey Alison, your post was really informative. I think it is crazy how temperatures have risen by 4-6 degrees in the region. What is even more scary is that they are projected to have an increase of up to 8 degrees in the region in a century. This paired with the failed state and food insecurity could lead to disaster in the region if something does not change.
ReplyDeleteI really thought your post did a great job of highlighting what has occurred since Tropic of Chaos. It was very informative and I really liked the use of the quote and the map. With things continually getting worse for Kyrgyzstan, I hope a turn-around comes soon and is more than due. I hope the Government finds success in some of its agency's and programs to revive this failed state.
ReplyDeleteHi Alison, this post was a really great summary of what has happened in Kyrgyzstan since the events described by Parenti. I think the images you chose and the quote that stand out from the rest of the text were really effective ways to emphasize that information. The most alarming part about this post to me was their inability to travel/leave due to closed borders in 2020 - it reminded me of Saeed and Nadia’s inability to escape their city in Exit West (had there not been magic doors).
ReplyDeleteHi Alison, It's bad that the failing state from the book isn't faring any better, but I like that you checked into it to get an update. It seems strange to me that we were discussing the negative consequences of a 4 cent global reaction when there are some nations where that reaction may be doubled by the end of the century. Your post was very broad and an easy read, I really enjoyed it.
ReplyDeleteHey Alison,
ReplyDeleteThe impact the environmental crisis has had on Kyrgyzstan is terrifying. Not having enough food to eat or enough water for the population is something many of us have never experienced. The country needs assistance from the global north. Hopefully, the prediction of high their temperatures might reach never comes to fruition.