Brazil: Climate Change & Farming

 

In Christian Parenti’s Tropics of Chaos the information presented on how farming is changing in Brazil was especially interesting because I did a research paper several years ago on how subsistence and commercial farming is shifting/needs to change in South America. Parenti presents research on a long history of societal and economic struggle in Brazil which is unfortunately non-distinctive to many countries across the globe. However, Parenti notes in his findings not only that “northeast Brazil ‘is expected to experience more rapid warming than the global average” but also that this region will “be a region of very severe water stress by 2050” (Parenti, 173). Another source noted that Brazil is the “world’s most water-rich country” yet since 1991 an entire 15% of the land typically covered by water has become completely dry. This poses a serious threat to the livelihoods of both commercial farmers and subsistence farmers in the coming years.

Between a long history of economic struggles and poverty, drought in the most vital farming regions of the country may just be the straw to break the camel’s back. In contrast to Parenti’s study showing that northeastern Brazil will be experiencing severe water stress by 2050, an annual rainfall report of 2021 indicated that northern Brazil has seen significantly more water than usual. Let it be recognized that this observation was only over 2021 so this may be a normal climate anomaly. However, the southern region where most of the commercial and subsistence farming occurs has seen a 91-year-low in reservoirs with the worst drought to have been recorded since satellite records began. This is especially concerning considering that this southern region is where most of the farming is which accounts for 70% of Brazil’s GDP.

H. Save et al. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 121, 7547–7569 (2016)

               In the face of this increasing water scarcity and general climate change it has been predicted that farmers’ crop preference will change in the coming years. Typically, fruits and vegetables are grown in warmer locations whilst wheat and potatoes are grown in cooler locations. An average rise in temperature will lead more farmers to stray away from growing “maize, wheat, and potatoes” in favor of “squash, fruits, and vegetables.” This change in choice of crop growth will also lead to large corresponding changes in produce exports as well as economic growth correlated with those exports. Incoming water scarcity stands as a threat to all efficient crop production in South America, this shift in crops grown will only be one of many changes in land use. There is additional growing concern in subsistence farmers about irrigation for their crops. They believe that the water is decreasing due to over-consumption by the commercial farms. This is only partially true. Deforestation is altering the amount of water circulation in the air which is almost as important as rainfall. Deforestation of the northern forest is therefore a moiety of the drought issue in the southern crops.

               In addition to crop preference changing, fires may become more prevalent and destructive in Brazil in the coming years. This increase is unfortunately human-related regarding land-use changes. One study determined that most fires occur on human cultivated pastures and tropical evergreen forests. The biggest issue they found that arises is when a planned fire on a pasture jumps to adjacent forest and from there is entirely uncontrollable. These planned fires coupled with increasing water scarcity due to climate change in the southern region could potentially lead to devastation in the future for subsistence farmers, commercial farmers, lead to biodiversity loss, and release tons more carbon from what should be a carbon sequestration resource.

               Considering all these hardships in Brazil and even those to come, there is still hope and positive efforts are being made not only to prepare for the changing climate but to increase efficiency (thereby decreasing resource use per unit). The Modulo Agroclimático Inteligente e Sustentável (MAIS) program has been helping subsistence farmers develop climate change adaptive farming strategies for at least the last 12 years. Farmers who adopted the program were able to gain a variety of value in their land including: recovering degraded land, ensuring water and food availability, and on a broader scale can reduce the carbon footprint of the dairy industry by implementing a rotational grazing system. This program has increased dairy farmers’ “production by 63% and increased their income by 204%” yet still “resulted in a 30% improvement in pastureland, a 50% decrease in water footprint.” They have even estimated that if the MAIS program was adopted in the 15 largest dairy corporations that it could decrease Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions by 4%. Programs like this will hopefully continue to be adopted by more and more farmers globally in the face of climate change. There are people hard at work doing their best to ensure a livable yet sustainable future in agriculture.

               There are significant challenges to be faced as I have noted above. Some of which have become more daunting even since Parenti’s 2012 book. Catastrophic convergence threatens to flip the boat but people are resilient and hard-working. The path is challenging, although not impossible.