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Glacial Runoff, Water Scarcity, & Hydropower

 

With climate change becoming more and more severe, water scarcity will also become more severe.  Countries in the global south are already facing issues regarding water scarcity.  In southern Asia, the Indus Basin consists of rivers such as the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum that feed water to many countries in the Global South. Specifically, Pakistan and India have been facing this dilemma for over sixty years.  Conflict began when India began withholding water that should have been also getting to Pakistan.  Pakistan requires the water from the Indus river to keep its economy alive, which keeps the country alive.  India, however, has a strong enough economy, that it can survive with limited water access from the Indues. To resolve the conflict between the two countries, in 1960, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was arranged by the World Bank to maintain balanced water control between India and Pakistan. 


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In the book Tropic of Chaos, by Christian Parenti, the author speaks in much detail of the conflict still happening between these countries.  In 2008 India placed a dam on the Chenab river which in turn restricted water flow into Pakistan.  In the book, it was predicted that between the restricted water flow and the steadily dropping precipitation, that water availability by 2025 will fall to 809 cubic meters per person, per year.

Now, since the book was written in 2011, I was curious to see what’s going on between the two countries today, in 2023.  The current predicted water availability stands above the predicted amount. As of 2021, water availability in Pakistan is around 1017 cubic meters, per person, per year.  However, it’s now predicted that water scarcity will drop to 500 cubic meters available per person, per year by 2025.

As for the Indus Water Treaty, as of 2023, India has proclaimed it’s intent to make amendments to the sixty-two-year-old treaty.  The treaty currently states that India may use the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes.  However, any time India has suggested pursuing a hydroelectric project on one of the western rivers, Pakistan has put up a dispute preventing India from such going forth with such projects.  In addition to the hydroelectric dam dilemma, India is now also feeling the pressure of climate change and global warming and is another cause for the fight to amend the outdated treaty.  As for now, the treaty stands, but it looks as though we may see some interesting changes in the future.

This outline from Parenti’s book is an example of how crucial glacial runoff can be.  The Indus River Basin is fed from the glaciers of the Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hundu Kush ranges.  Keep in mind, this is just one example of conflict that has risen out of water scarcity involving glaciers and rivers.


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Now, out of curiosity I decided to some research other countries that also rely on glacial runoff.  There was one country that really stuck out to me; Peru.  Peru is home to a distant relative of mine, as well as a neighboring country to Ecuador that a friend of mine frequently visits.  I wanted to learn more about it's glaciers and if Peru has faced or may potentially face similar conflict to that of India & Pakistan. 

Peru is one of the most biodiverse countries worldwide. Peru’s land covers three varying ecosystems, the coast, the mountains and highlands, and the Amazon.  The mountain and highlands are home to the Andes which play a major role in both the community and ecosystem of Peru.  During the wet season, the Andes glaciers build mass and acts as water reservation, and during the dry season, the meltwater runoff from the glaciers is a freshwater resource that assists in making up for the lack of precipitation.  It is important to note that the Andes are outer tropical glaciers, which are unlike inner tropical glaciers, by which outer tropical glaciers are less influenced by temperature and more influenced by factors related to precipitation.

An El Nino is an irregular warming of the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, which fluctuates and disrupts weather and ecosystems lasting several months up to a little over a year.  A Pacific Decadal Oscillation is similar to that of an El Nino event, however, it can last anywhere from twenty to thirty years.  These events influence weather and climate, which in turn influence the glaciers of the Andes in Peru, which then influence the communities, ecosystems and including surrounding countries.  

I found this information very interesting and caught myself wondering if Peru was going to be the next India.  Like India, Peru is also in the business of using hydroelectric plants. How long until that starts having negative effects on other countries reliant on the rivers? Is it possible for a similar conflict to arise like that between India and Pakistan?


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As for now, Peru remains strong and stable with a goal to be energy self-sufficient by the year 2040.  Maybe India and Pakistan should take note of how Peru is handling its business among its surrounding countries.  Just a thought.

https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/hydropower-in-latin-america-and-renewable-energy-policies

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9464874/#bib12

https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/troubled-waters-india-pakistan-and-the-indus-water-treaty-2-0/

 

 


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