With climate change becoming more and more severe,
water scarcity will also become more severe.
Countries in the global south are already facing issues regarding water
scarcity. In southern Asia, the Indus
Basin consists of rivers such as the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum that feed water
to many countries in the Global South. Specifically, Pakistan and India have
been facing this dilemma for over sixty years.
Conflict began when India began withholding water that should have been
also getting to Pakistan. Pakistan
requires the water from the Indus river to keep its economy alive, which keeps
the country alive. India, however, has a
strong enough economy, that it can survive with limited water access from the
Indues. To resolve the conflict between the two countries, in 1960, the Indus Water
Treaty (IWT) was arranged by the World Bank to maintain balanced water control
between India and Pakistan.
Source
In the book Tropic of Chaos, by Christian
Parenti, the author speaks in much detail of the conflict still happening between
these countries. In 2008 India placed a
dam on the Chenab river which in turn restricted water flow into Pakistan. In the book, it was predicted that between
the restricted water flow and the steadily dropping precipitation, that water
availability by 2025 will fall to 809 cubic meters per person, per year.
Now, since the book was written in 2011, I was curious
to see what’s going on between the two countries today, in 2023. The current predicted water availability stands above the predicted amount. As of 2021, water availability in Pakistan is
around 1017 cubic meters, per person, per year. However, it’s now predicted that water scarcity
will drop to 500 cubic meters available per person, per year by 2025.
As for the Indus Water Treaty, as of 2023, India has proclaimed
it’s intent to make amendments to the sixty-two-year-old treaty. The treaty currently states that India may
use the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes. However, any time India has suggested pursuing
a hydroelectric project on one of the western rivers, Pakistan has put up a dispute
preventing India from such going forth with such projects. In addition to the hydroelectric dam dilemma,
India is now also feeling the pressure of climate change and global warming and
is another cause for the fight to amend the outdated treaty. As for now, the treaty stands, but it looks
as though we may see some interesting changes in the future.
This outline from Parenti’s book is an example of how
crucial glacial runoff can be. The Indus
River Basin is fed from the glaciers of the Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hundu Kush
ranges. Keep in mind, this is just one
example of conflict that has risen out of water scarcity involving glaciers and
rivers.
Source
Now, out of curiosity I decided to some research other
countries that also rely on glacial runoff. There was one country that really stuck out
to me; Peru. Peru is home to a distant relative of mine, as well as a neighboring country to Ecuador that a friend of mine frequently visits. I wanted to learn more about it's glaciers and if Peru has faced or may potentially face similar conflict to that of India & Pakistan.
Peru is one of the most biodiverse countries worldwide.
Peru’s land covers three varying ecosystems, the coast, the mountains and
highlands, and the Amazon. The mountain
and highlands are home to the Andes which play a major role in both the
community and ecosystem of Peru. During
the wet season, the Andes glaciers build mass and acts as water reservation,
and during the dry season, the meltwater runoff from the glaciers is a
freshwater resource that assists in making up for the lack of precipitation. It is important to note that the Andes are
outer tropical glaciers, which are unlike inner tropical glaciers, by which
outer tropical glaciers are less influenced by temperature and more influenced
by factors related to precipitation.
An El Nino is an irregular warming of the surface
temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, which fluctuates and disrupts weather and
ecosystems lasting several months up to a little over a year. A Pacific Decadal Oscillation is similar to
that of an El Nino event, however, it can last anywhere from twenty to thirty
years. These events influence weather
and climate, which in turn influence the glaciers of the Andes in Peru, which
then influence the communities, ecosystems and including surrounding countries.
I found this information very interesting and caught
myself wondering if Peru was going to be the next India. Like India, Peru is also in the business of using
hydroelectric plants. How long until that starts having negative effects on
other countries reliant on the rivers? Is it possible for a similar conflict to
arise like that between India and Pakistan?
Source
As for now, Peru remains strong and stable with a goal
to be energy self-sufficient by the year 2040.
Maybe India and Pakistan should take note of how Peru is handling its
business among its surrounding countries.
Just a thought.
https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/hydropower-in-latin-america-and-renewable-energy-policies
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9464874/#bib12
https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/troubled-waters-india-pakistan-and-the-indus-water-treaty-2-0/
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